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Monsters From the Dark

SeaAndSky

SeaAndSky

Senior Registered
The term "Dark" here is used to indicate the dark at the outer limits of the Solar System and beyond. A new interloper in our system has been discovered. It is very large and moving very fast (I think the figure mentioned is 152,000 mph relative to our planet). It is currently projected to pass inside the orbit of Mars, which is extremely close in celestial terms, making its closest approach to the sun in October. The linked video animation in the next article shows it actually intersecting with the planet Mars as it shoots past the sun. This is probably just the result of grossly enlarging the graphics for both bodies to make them visible on the scale of the video (otherwise they would probably be microbe sized). However, the fact that current projections show this body being so close at that point in Mars' orbit is also pretty remarkable, considering the size of the cosmos and the Solar System:


I think it goes without saying that current estimates of the size of the object (I think the Island of Manhattan is mentioned at some locations), its velocity, and its trajectory may change with time. It also goes without saying that a collision with another body in the Solar System could have catastrophic results for both, and in the case of Mars, possible results for us as well. :oops: So, this is one to watch carefully until we know more. It had (as of yesterday) an impossible to remember designation; however, it has already been re-named 31/Atlas, and there are already quite a few articles up online. Some are referring to it as a comet, others don't seem so sure. Keep tuned.

Cordially,
S&S

PS--It would be interesting if it turns out to be an Interstellar Ark. We'll know If it starts decelerating. ;)
 
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When I read about events like this, I realize I have a choice: I can get caught up in worry, or in hope—but either way, I’m handing over my inner state to something I can’t control or understand yet.

From experience, I’ve seen that the emotions I dwell in tend to shape what I keep encountering—whether or not they’re directly connected to the original trigger. So instead of swinging between fear and fascination, I choose to step back.

If there’s something I can actually do, I’ll do it. If not, I just ignore it.
 
baro-san said:
When I read about events like this, I realize I have a choice: I can get caught up in worry, or in hope—but either way, I’m handing over my inner state to something I can’t control or understand yet.

From experience, I’ve seen that the emotions I dwell in tend to shape what I keep encountering—whether or not they’re directly connected to the original trigger. So instead of swinging between fear and fascination, I choose to step back.

If there’s something I can actually do, I’ll do it. If not, I just ignore it.
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Hi Baro-san,

I don't think the answer is to ignore the issue, but to try to actually move towards doing something about it. Studying and learning about the history of our planet and the Solar System has alerted us to the fact that catastrophic impacts can occur. (The movie industry has certainly not ignored this possibility over the years). The current encounter, if it keeps the course projected, is the celestial equivalent of having a bullet buzz past your ear. I.e., it may have missed, but one should definitely take actions to protect themselves from the next. An actual program based on protecting the planet from threats like this would IMO not only serve as a safeguard against the "monsters" that whiff past our ears. I believe it could develop the technology to really break-out in terms of exploring, settling and exploiting the Solar System, and possibly, the stars as well. So, even if the only thing we can do at present is keep our cool in terms of the current encounter, being better prepared for the next seems advisable to me both in terms of the problem at issue and the other benefits it could bring.

Cordially,
S&S
 
@SeaAndSky

That makes sense to me—there’s definitely value in making practical preparations and using potential threats as motivation for growth and innovation.

My comment wasn’t meant to discourage action where action is possible, especially on a collective level. I was speaking more to the individual emotional response—how, for me, attaching too much attention to possibilities I can’t influence directly tends to distort my focus and energy. So I’ve found it’s better to ignore what I can’t act on, not because it doesn’t matter, but because how I feel while observing it tends to shape the rest of my experience.

Everyone orients differently—I just try to stay clear on what’s actually mine to carry.
 
All:

I have been amazed that no one has been saying the obvious in the news articles I have been reading. I suppose they were trying to avoid panic by the unwashed masses. They always do that in the movies as well--i.e., save the terrible news for the last moment. It actually is pretty good advice most of the time. If people knew, they might quit their jobs, try to liquidate their holdings (all at the same time), and plan for long (actually permanent) vacations while they awaited the worst. Food wouldn't get to the city, and things would get very bad, very quickly.

This article at least, in a humorous way, speaks to the issue that everyone knows but doesn't say = This is a very dangerous piece of interstellar debris, something that would be devastating if it hit our planet:


Cordially,
S&S

PS--In a truly nightmare scenario, "they" are in fact already "cooking" the facts, and watching public reactions = "Monstro" really isn't going to miss everything, and they are just trying to avoid a panic (like in the movies). I actually doubt that, but . . . .
PPS--Yes, I may be a bit paranoid. However, I consider it odd that no one "official" (i.e., high in the government) has said a thing about this interloper and the dangers it could present if its trajectory were just a bit different.
 
Here are some updates regarding what would happen if a body this size struck Mars or Earth courtesy of Google AI. First for Mars:

"what would happen if 3I/Atlas struck mars?"

Even though Comet 3I/ATLAS is not predicted to impact Mars, if it were to strike the Red Planet, the consequences would be significant, depending on the comet's size and composition.
Here's a breakdown of potential effects:
  • Impact Crater: An impact would create a new crater on the Martian surface, the size of which would be determined by the comet's dimensions and velocity.
  • Atmospheric Effects: The impact could inject dust and gases into Mars' already thin atmosphere, potentially leading to short-term climatic changes.
  • Geological Upheaval: Large impacts have been linked to changes in Mars' geological activity, potentially influencing volcanism and tectonic shifts.
  • Seismic Activity: An impact would generate seismic waves, or "marsquakes," which could be detected by instruments like the InSight lander.
  • Hydrothermal Systems: Some research suggests that comet and asteroid impacts on early Mars may have created temporary hydrothermal systems within craters, potentially supporting microbial life.
  • Comet 3I/ATLAS is estimated to be roughly between 4-5 kilometers in diameter, which is smaller than the largest impact basins on Mars, but still a significant size.
    It's important to reiterate that Comet 3I/ATLAS is expected to pass by Mars at a safe distance and poses no threat to either Earth or Mars.
One of the things I note is that the size estimates for this body have decreased significantly, but for a dead world = not too bad. Actually, it might add some atmosphere and help to warm things up a bit.
 
The predictions for our planet are, as might be expected, far more grim:

"what would happen if 3I/Atlas struck earth?"

Although it's important to stress that Comet 3I/ATLAS poses no threat to Earth, if a celestial body of its estimated size (around 4-5 kilometers or 2.5-3.1 miles in diameter, according to Space.com}) were to collide with our planet, the consequences would be catastrophic and far-reaching, far beyond the effects of an impact on Mars. Here's a breakdown of the potential events:
  • Initial Impact and Crater Formation: The impact would release an immense amount of energy, creating a crater dozens of miles wide and potentially several miles deep, depending on the impact site and angle. If it impacted land, the immediate area would be vaporized, and a massive fireball would scorch the surrounding landscape, according to a Quora answer. If it hit the ocean, it would generate colossal tsunamis that would devastate coastal regions worldwide.
  • Atmospheric and Climate Effects:
    • Dust and Debris: Massive quantities of dust, rock, and other material would be ejected into the atmosphere, potentially forming a global cloud that blocks out sunlight. This could trigger an "impact winter," causing global temperatures to plummet drastically and potentially last for years.
    • Wildfires: The heat generated by re-entering ejecta could ignite widespread wildfires, releasing huge amounts of soot and carbon into the atmosphere, intensifying the impact winter effects.
    • Acid Rain: Chemical reactions in the atmosphere following the impact could lead to a global deluge of highly corrosive acid rain, further damaging vegetation and affecting marine life.
    • Ozone Depletion: The protective ozone layer would be severely depleted, increasing the amount of harmful ultraviolet radiation reaching the Earth's surface and potentially lasting for up to two years.
    • Biological and Ecological Consequences:
      • Mass Extinction: The combination of prolonged darkness, extreme cold, lack of food, and acid rain would disrupt ecosystems on a global scale. Many plant and animal species would likely go extinct, potentially wiping out a large percentage of the planet's biodiversity.
      • Human Impact: Human civilization would face unprecedented challenges, including widespread famine, societal collapse, and massive casualties. Even survivors might be thrown back into a dark age, notes a Quora answer.
    • Long-Term Effects:
      • Changes in Ecosystems: The environmental changes would fundamentally alter how ecosystems function and evolve.
      • Genetic Mutations: Increased UV exposure could lead to mutations in living organisms, potentially accelerating evolutionary processes in the long run.
      • The impact of an object the size of 3I/ATLAS would pose a severe threat to life on Earth. The effects would be far worse than a similar impact on Mars, due to Earth's atmosphere and biosphere. Fortunately, current projections show that 3I/ATLAS will safely pass by Earth.
 
Cheer up everyone! It may not be an interstellar comet or an interstellar ark, but a mammoth hostile craft sent by aliens to destroy us :eek:--


This is part of what is referred to as

. . . the so-called "dark forest" hypothesis — which comes from sci-fi writer Cixin Liu's novel of the same name and posits that the universe is full of silent and aggressive aliens, all staying as quiet as possible to avoid mutually-assured destruction — Loeb and his colleagues Adam Hibberd and Adam Crowl suggest that 3I/ATLAS could theoretically provide evidence that we are not alone, and that our neighbors would do us harm.

"The consequences, should the [dark forest] hypothesis turn out to be correct, could potentially be dire for humanity," Loeb wrote in a blog post accompanying the paper, "and would possibly require defensive measures to be undertaken (though these might prove futile.)"

Lovely. :oops: Such a cheerful person. :confused:

S&S

PS--Of course, according to the hypothesis in question, smart aliens don't jabber their heads off on communication frequencies, radio, etc. They keep quiet. We, on the other hand, have been broadcasting our inanities into the universe in ever increasing volumes and intensities for a century or so. We may find out that wasn't really a good idea. . . .

PPS--I hope 3I/Atlas is just a potentially world destroying comet that just happened to miss us . . . this time.
 
For those interested, here is a summary by Scientist Avi Loeb of the "Dark Forest" paper by him and two others in regard to 3I/Atlas and its behavior, trajectory, etc.:

avi-loeb.medium.com

Is the Interstellar Object 3I/ATLAS Alien Technology?

Today I co-authored an intriguing new paper with the brilliant collaborators Adam Hibberd and Adam Crowl from the Initiative for…
avi-loeb.medium.com avi-loeb.medium.com

Of course, this could all just be interesting drivel, but I still found it pretty spooky myself. I.e., as he points out, the probability of a random body having this exact (and interesting) trajectory is very, very small. And, it does look like its trajectory is calculated to keep it hidden from our view by the sun at closest approach and/or to hide a surprise deceleration and/or adjustment to its trajectory, so as to (Eeeek!) catch us by surprise. :oops:

Hopefully, I will consider this all to be fairly humorous a year from now. :D ;) Or, . . . maybe not . . . o_O
 
Here's a tl;dr of Loeb's article:

Here’s a concise tl;dr of Avi Loeb’s Medium essay “Is the Interstellar Object 3I/ATLAS Alien Technology?”:



🚀 Main hypothesis​


Loeb (with Hibberd & Crowl) explores a testable hypothesis: 3I/ATLAS might be a technological artifact—possibly even a probe sent deliberately into our inner solar system—from an extraterrestrial civilization (arXiv).



Why the idea is intriguing​


  • Unusual orbit: 3I/ATLAS follows a retrograde path aligned closely with the ecliptic, minimizing Earth's view at perihelion—a trajectory one might choose if avoiding attention (Medium).
  • Orbital dynamics: Its trajectory and speed might enable efficient maneuvers (e.g., Oberth maneuvers), possibly allowing it to rendezvous with Jupiter or slip into a heliocentric orbit (Medium).


Counterpoints & caution​


  • The authors stress this is largely a pedagogical exercise, not a claim—it’s a possibility worth exploring but not the most likely scenario (Reddit).
  • With only three detected interstellar objects to analyze, it’s hard to say whether 3I/ATLAS’s quirks are anomalous or just natural statistical outliers (Harvard CFA).


Natural explanations still strong​


  • Loeb himself acknowledges the strongest likelihood: it’s a natural interstellar comet, and that’s what new data will likely confirm (Reddit).
  • Additional observations—especially during its perihelion passage (late Oct 2025, when Earth can’t see it)—could clarify whether it shows comet-like outgassing or unexpected non-gravitational acceleration (Medium).


🔬 Bottom line​


Loeb invites the scientific community to remain open-minded and use upcoming observations to test this bold but logical hypothesis. Whether natural or engineered, studying 3I/ATLAS could reveal new insights—and if it did turn out to have technological traits, it would deeply affect our understanding of extraterrestrial intelligence (Medium).



TL;DR: Avi Loeb proposes that 3I/ATLAS might be alien tech, given its peculiar orbit and dynamics—but emphasizes it’s a testable conjecture, not a firm claim. The next weeks/months of observations will help determine if it's just a comet, or something more extraordinary.
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And a face with the article:

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Hi Baro-san,

Agreed in terms of the possible (and actually probable) "comet" explanation. But it is mostly probable at this early stage because we have never seen a giant interstellar craft before, while we have seen plenty of comets. So, at this distance, it is definitely more probable based on prior experience (to me as well as to everyone else). Likewise, it hasn't done anything at this point to disabuse us of that notion. However, time will tell, as the saying goes, and I will be very relieved if it turns out to be what we all hope that it is (since it is missing us). It will also not lessen the need to be prepared to deal with a comet or asteroid in the future that is not slated to miss us. Besides, being prepared will require us to develop technologies and infrastructure in space that we're not really all that interested in doing at the moment. So, that is a "twofer" as far as I am concerned. ;)

Nonetheless, I find Loeb's discussion and hypothesis interesting. However, given the shortage of prime real estate out there in the cosmos, it seems like a real waste to send a planet-killer sized body in our direction, rendering our beautiful world uninhabitable by anyone. I think that it is more likely (trying to think like someone who would like to evict the current tenants for the benefit of my own species), that I would use my retrograde trajectory to launch a variety of masses in a retrograde orbit to collide with our planet, combining their orbital velocity with our planet's velocity in the opposite direction will magnify their destructive power, resulting in very powerful "KEWS" = Kinetic Energy Weapons = tremendous destruction without all that yucky radiation to pollute my future real estate holdings. So, something(s) would be performing the Oberth maneuver in the proximity of the sun, but not the main body (which has just used its close approach to the sun in a very clever way), but will continue out towards Jupiter. There it will perform the Oberth maneuver in order to hook around that mighty planet and achieve a non-retrograde orbit around the sun. Where it will go from there is beyond my strategic and tactical skills as an interstellar conqueror. :cool: Maybe it will just go into orbit around Jupiter and study the situation. Maybe it will start throwing rocks from the asteroid belt. However, if it was me, I would head for a rendezvous with the Earth-Lunar system and use the moon for my source of large rocks. From there, at the top of the gravity well, it can systematically wipe us out.* We do not, after all, have any real capabilities to get there or do anything about it, though in movie-land the brave humans always find a way** (unless you're watching a Swedish movie, in which case we all perish :eek:).

Cordially,
S&S

PS*--This particular trope has been used in a variety of Sci Fi novels over the years, e.g., "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" by Heinlein, or more recently, "Footfall" by Niven and Pournelle.
PPS--To my mind, if this is an interstellar craft, its vast size (which is being calculated based on how much light is being reflected) if correct, may not be the size of the actual body of the craft, but relate to the fact that we are looking at the leading side of an interstellar light/laser sail and/or the type of sail driven by thermonuclear pulse units in some hypothetical interstellar craft designs currently in circulation. Both of these forms of propulsion feature immense "sails".
PPPS**--If it is not clear so far, I am still looking for a possible explanation for Elle C.'s visions and lifelong preparation for a "flash" from the West and the survivors she has been preparing to shelter under the guidance and providence of Heaven. I actually take hope from this for humanity in general, though the scenarios I have "spun" above would probably not leave me and mine in a very good situation where we are located. :oops:
 
Just a couple of brief and interesting updates:

(1) Video showing a UAP apparently "shrugging off" and breaking-up a Hellfire missile was presented in Congress, causing a bit of a hubbub. Video coverage is available at NBC, ABC, and the BBC as well as elsewhere. The video is quite striking and worth watching, making us look a bit like folks with spears and arrows trying to take on a tank:

www.bbc.com

UFO witnesses to testify at US Congress - live updates

The hearing is focusing on unidentified anomalous phenomena, or UAP - often known as UFOs.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

This does not mean that the UAPs overall are unfriendly or intend to do us harm, but if they were unfriendly, I think our "goose would be cooked". :oops:

(2) 3I continues doing un-comet things, but I'll let you catch-up on that one. Maybe it is the Mother Ship for all of the little advanced scouts (UAPs) we have been dealing with over the last few centuries, but who knows. All I can say is that the skies remain busy (close to home and "out yonder") and full of things that make me more-and-more nervous, but that's just me I guess. 🤪 More sensible folks keep themselves concerned with more "sensible" things. ;)

S&S
 
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Interesting 3I news.

(1) Everyone following this story was looking forward to getting the best possible (i.e., highest resolution) images of the object on its closest approach to Mars via a satellite in orbit there. Surprise, no hi-res images released. The excuse being given is the government shutdown, including NASA. However, . . .

(2) The government has now activated a planetary defense network meant to guard against asteroid impacts to track 3I, despite the fact that (given its trajectory) it has long been considered to be no threat to us. Here is a "Mirror" article playing up the threat idea, and another from Scientist Avi Loeb reiterating the very unusual characteristics of this object as well as the interesting timing of the announcement. Of course, 3I probably is a good object for a practice drill, but . . .


medium.com

The International Asteroid Warning Network Initiated a Campaign to Monitor 3I/ATLAS

An editorial notice by the Minor Planet Center (accessible here) announced that the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, has just been targeted in…
medium.com medium.com

We live in interesting times.

Cordially,
S&S

PS--Avi Loeb gave the object 4 out of 10 on his scale in terms of its possible technological origin. He has stood firm on that estimate as new evidence of its strangeness (when compared to normal comets) continues to arrive. I had hoped for a bump-down the scale when the high-res images came in. :confused:
 
My two cents.. it's definetly natural in composition, but something about it.. where / when it's from , it's arrival now, all seem engineered to me.
 
I tend to think that it may be a natural object that has been re-engineered and repurposed, possibly with very significant modifications. I would like it to be a purely natural object. However, some of the things I have been hearing indicate that there have been some significant course changes taking place. These supposedly took place before it moved out of sight. I’m afraid we won’t know for sure until it pops back out from behind the sun. By that time, if it really is some kind of death star, I’m afraid it will be too late for us to do anything about it. 😳 This does not mean to say that we could’ve done anything about it anyway. 😬
 
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